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| Kyokushuzan Roho Hokutoriki Hakurozan Toyozakura Jumonji Kotomitsuki Hakuho Aminishiki Kyokutenho |
17.5 7.14 6.67 5.83 5.26 5 4.17 3.54 3.33 3.33 |
The leader Kyokushuzan did not henka in Aki – receiving just one nomination – and his henka percentage dropped from 20 to 17.5. There seems to be no rhyme, reason nor pattern to his henka action, so I’ll just report the numbers without trying to figure it out..
Regarding the henka targets, I had found it curious that Hokutoriki had been hit on only four times during the first four basho of our study, considering his all-or-nothing tachiai, but there’s nothing to wonder about any more because in the last two basho, he has been set up and bounced out five times (three here in Aki) to send him to the head of the class of targets, and near the top in terms of percentage of targeted bouts lost – he’s lost eight of the nine.
The four most popular targets are the same – only the order has changed: Hokutoriki, Kasugao, Kotoshogiku, and Tamanoshima. The remainder of the top ten list has two new entrants: Kaio and Kokkai, replacing Futeno and Tochinonada. Here is the current top ten list, in order of the percentage of their bouts in which
| Hokutoriki Kasugao Kotoshogiku Tamanoshima Roho Kaio Iwakiyama Kokkai Tosanoumi Toyonoshima |
7.5 6.67 5 5 4.46 4.35 4.31 4.17 3.81 3.81 |
Toyonoshima may not remain on this list much longer. Apparently the rikishi keep good records themselves and have noted that – at least during our study – he has yet to lose a bout in which he was targeted. As a result, he has not been targeted at all during the last four basho.
Now on to the henka win rate. The overall rate of henka bouts resulting in wins by the perpetrator continues to undulate, and lately the percentage has trended upward. The perpetrator won 11 of the 14 henka bouts in the Aki basho, sending the win rate up to 67 per cent – or to be precise, 87 wins in 130 henka’d bouts. The win percentage seems to have settled in the 60s, but still, eight basho is not a lot. On an individual basis, Hokutoriki is the cream of the crop here again, winning seven of his eight henka’d bouts. Actually, there are ten perpetrators with perfect winning records, but Kyokutenho is the only one with at least four henka. So the all-or-nothing nature of Hokutoriki’s sumo is borne out in the henka department as well, as he’s 7 for 8 as a perpetrator, and 1 for 9 as a target.
Since the overall win rate went up, it follows that the win rate in the two
1. The win percentage of the henka perpetrators for henka validated by Yes Vote Margins of 2-1, 3-1, and by Unanimous Yes votes.
2. Same as the first category, but only for those bouts with at least ten total votes. For this sub-category, the Unanimous sector does permit a single dissenting vote.
|
Vote
Disparity
|
Win % Any # Votes |
Win % 10+ Votes |
| 2-1 3-1 Unanimous |
68 73 81 |
78 76 89 |
So it still holds true that the win rate goes up with the higher rate of yes votes, and it goes higher still when the bouts that attracted at least ten votes are segmented out. For the Unanimous sector of the 10+ Votes sub-category, the actual numbers are 16 perpetrator wins in 18 bouts. Actually, after Nagoya, I thought we were well on the way to being able to make irrelevant the 10+ Votes sub-category because of the increased number of voters, but it doesn’t look like that’ll be happening for awhile. So again, if there are any thoughts on how to pump up the voting, please pass them on. That’s the henka skinny for now. Some trends are becoming evident with each passing basho, but it’ll take a few years for the information to become ‘solid,’ at least in my mind. Thanks again for your interest, and hang in there as we add to the historical record.
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