| Brothers in Sumo – part two Brian Lewin |
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| Yokozuna Comparisons Joe Kuroda |
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| Rikishi of Old John Gunning |
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| Heya Peek Barbara Ann Klein |
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| SFM Interview John Gunning |
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| Sumo 101 Barbara Ann Klein |
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| Photo Bonanza See the Hatsu Basho |
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| Hatsu Basho Review Lon Howard |
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| Lower Division Rikishi Mikko Mattila |
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| Haru Basho Forecast Pierre Wohlleben & Mark Buckton |
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| Kimarite Focus Mikko Mattila |
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| Minusha John McTague |
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| Online Gaming Alexander Nitschke |
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| Kokugi Connections Todd Lambert |
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| Fan Debate Feb's debate sees |
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SFM Cartoons
Benny Loh & Stephen Thompson
In the third of our cartoon bonanzas, sit back and enjoy BL’s offerings and put a caption to ST’s pic to win yourselves a banzuke
| Let’s Hear From You What was it that |
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| Readers’ Letters See what some SFM |
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Sumo Quiz
The Quizmaster
Answer the Qs and win yourself next basho’s banzuke.
It’s much too early to tell if any men will emerge as favorite henka targets, but at this early going, Kasugao, Toyonoshima and Kotoshogiku are heading the list. Right now, if I were getting ready to take on Toyonoshima, I might scratch my henka plans because he’s won all four bouts in which he was targeted. Conversely, Kasugao and Kotoshogiku have both lost three out of four.
Now let’s get down to the real meat of the issue, at least in the eyes of most fans – and that is addressing the question: Does henka help a rikishi win?
In the 68 validated henkas over the four basho, the perpetrator won 44 times, for a winning percentage of 65%. From this, henka may seem somewhat helpful, but it doesn’t show an overwhelming edge, and it can’t be said that bringing out the
First, I segmented out the henkas that were validated by at least margins of 2-1, 3-1, and by unanimous yes votes. Here’s what happened to the winning percentage then:
| Yes Vote Margin | Win Pct. |
|---|---|
| 2-1 | 63 |
| 3-1 | 70 |
| Unanimous | 79 |
So, even with a limited amount of data (four basho) collected, it seems evident that the closer the henka appears to be undeniable to the fans, the more likely it is to result in victory. Then I took it one step further by segmenting out only those henka bouts that attracted at least ten votes – the thought here being that a unanimous 3-0 or 4-0 vote isn’t too instructive because of the low number of entries. In this segment, I grouped together the unanimous henkas with those having only 1 dissenting vote, figuring 1 lone voice out of 10 or 20 isn’t too impactful (no disrespect if your voice was one of those). Look at what happened:
| Yes Vote Margin | Win Pct. |
|---|---|
| 2-1 | 75 |
| 3-1 | 72 |
| Unanimous | 100 |
So by throwing out those bouts with the smaller number of votes, the win percentage went even higher. What’s more, when ten or more fans were in near complete agreement that a henka occurred, the perpetrator won 100% of those bouts (there were ten of those).
This outcome reminds me of a recent thread on Sumo Forum regarding whether or not Japanese fans are as critical of henka as foreigners. A point was made that fans were less critical if the perpetrator used a ‘half-henka’ to gain a more favorable position and ultimately won the match by yorikiri, than if he jumped clear to the side and forged a two-second slap down. In this first example, it’s pretty clear the voting would have some dissenters – while in the second, likely a unanimous yes vote. Looking at these two tactics, I would guess that the half-henka rikishi doesn’t want to risk losing all forward momentum
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