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beginning,
only 11 of them have henka rates over the 2.78% average. So it is
now absolutely true that the men on the top 10 list are responsible for
the overall rate being as high as it is. They really are the
cream of the crop. This means that overall leader Roho (9.15) has henka’d at over three times the average rate. With superstar Kyokushuzan gone, the top five men starting with Roho are exactly the same as last time. Kotooshu is now at number six and the rest of the top ten shows the same men as before in slightly different positions. Here is the top ten overall list right now, in order of percentage of total bouts henka’d.
Kotooshu’s five wins in his five henka in Hatsu have also made him the overall leader in henka win percentage, as he is a perfect eight for eight. The only other men with perfect scores among active rikishi with at least four henka are Kokkai and Kyokutenho. The other stars in this category are Roho (11-13), Hokutoriki (7-8) and Aminishiki (5-6). At the time of his retirement, Kyokushuzan was 15-21. As for |
the henka targets, Miyabiyama becomes more tempting to his
opponents with each basho, as two more matadors came calling this time,
on top of the three who showed up in Kyushu – and guess what – the
Miya-Babe lost all five of those. That moves him up to second
place overall with a target rate of 6.00%. He’s been hit nine
times and has lost eight of those, for a losing percentage of 89%, good
for 3rd place among the major targets. Others who were double
targets in Hatsu were Aminishiki and Dejima. Dejima is now just
short of the top ten, in 11th place with a 4.00% target rate.
Here is the overall list of top ten henka targets in order of the percentage of their bouts in which they were henka’d.
I’ve mentioned Toyonoshima several times before because early in our study he was a favorite target, but after winning all four of those early bouts, he’s off the list. In fact, in the last five basho, his opponents have received only one nomination, which was voted down by a 5-23 count. His target rate is now down to 2.96%, far off the top-rankers and barely over the |
2.78% average. As more and more basho are studied, the overall henka win rate is beginning to level out; at 113 wins in 167 henka, it’s now at 68%. Further, in the two subcategories studied that are based on vote disparity and the total number of votes, there has also been very little change. In these subcategories, the win rate is segmented out, based on yes-no vote disparities of 2-1, 3-1 and unanimous. Here are the current numbers:
Only three of the 36 nominations drew less than 10 votes, so if that continues, the difference between the ‘Any #’ and ’10 +’ vote categories will gradually diminish, which it did only slightly this time, except for the unanimous category. Because there are so few unanimous yes votes, those numbers can fluctuate wildly with one or two results in any direction – but it has always been true that when the yes vote was unanimous, the win rate was markedly higher. That’s the report on the slippers and sliders this time. Thanks very much for following along, and see you again in April. Hang in there, spring’s almost here! Home |
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